The American has endured her struggles of late, but she’s now available at favorable odds to repeat as champion in New York.
Last year, Coco Gauff won her maiden Grand Slam title at the US Open. The American had the New York crowd eating out of the palm of her hand, and she rode the momentum to a championship. On her way, Gauff beat Mirra Andreeva, Elise Mertens, Caroline Wozniacki, Jelena Ostapenko, Karolina Muchova and Aryna Sabalenka. It was a tremendous run that really stamped Gauff as an elite player. However, the defending champion is on an uneven run of form heading into this year’s event. Before arriving in Cincinnati, Gauff had lost four of her previous 10 matches.
With that in mind, is Gauff worth backing to win the US Open at +650? Let’s dive into those FanDuel Sportsbook odds.
The best place to start with this is by noting that it’s best not to overreact to a couple of weeks. While Gauff’s early exits at recent events might seem troubling, zooming out and looking at the entire 2024 season tells a different story.
For the 2023 season, which was the best of Gauff’s career, the American was 51-16 for a winning percentage of 76.1%, her hold percentage was 73.4% and her break percentage was 41.2%. In 2024, Gauff is 38-13 for a 74.5% winning percentage, her hold percentage is 72.0% and her break percentage is up at 46.2%. All in all, she’s statistically not far away from where she was when she won a Grand Slam title last year. She also reached the Australian Open semifinals, where she came the closest to conquering eventual champion Aryna Sabalenka. So, any talk of this being a nightmare season for Gauff is a bit overblown.
Where is is fair to worry about Gauff? The state of her forehand. That shot has been a documented weakness for the 20-year-old. There have been times where she’s managed it, with last year’s US Open being a two-week stretch where that shot was a bit more reliable. She also consistently hit it well in Washington D.C. and Cincinnati. But for the most part, Gauff tends to leak unforced errors from that side of the court. The best players in the world are capable of exploiting that. Gauff’s serving has also been a little up and down this year, with double-faulting turning into a bit of an issue. Her double-fault percentage is up from 5.1% in 2023 to 8.5% in 2024. Her second serve points won percentage is also down from 47.6% in 2023 to 43.7% in 2024.
All of the on-court stuff is concerning heading into the US Open. However, Gauff did suffer a first-round loss to Sofia Kenin in the first round of Wimbledon last year. The American was then able to lock in once she turned up in D.C., where she started playing in front of big home crowds. Don’t be surprised if a similar pattern presents itself this year. Confidence is absolutely massive in an individual sport. Gauff clearly has more when she has people pulling for her.
Gauff also knows that when she gets to these big tournaments, she’s often facing opponents that can tighten up. So, instead of swinging big and going for small targets from the forehand side, Gauff can play with shape and try to force her opponents to miss. She has won a lot of big matches by going into that Novak Djokovic “lockdown mode.” Gauff is one of the best athletes in the sport, so she can put a lot of balls back into play. I suspect her team will be preaching the importance of her grinding when she gets to New York.
The Delray Beach, Fla. native has been her own worst enemy by being more aggressive than she needs to be this season. But she’s smart enough to know that it’s time for her to do what needs to be done to win matches. And once she starts doing that, it wouldn’t be surprising if she starts finding the court from the forehand wing a little more often.
Overall, the US Open has brought the best out of Gauff in the past, and you just can’t rule out the possibility of it happening again. So, when you consider that and her odds, it’s hard not to like the idea of backing her to win her second major. It also doesn’t hurt that Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina are all dealing with some question marks heading into this tournament. Swiatek hasn’t played great tennis on quicker courts lately, Sabalenka has been extremely beatable in recent weeks and Rybakina just hasn’t been on the court much. All of that makes a bet on Gauff a little more enticing.
It’s crazy what a couple of weeks can do in regards to betting markets. A few weeks ago, Gauff’s odds were way too short to even consider to win the US Open. But her recent struggles have actually put her into a playable territory.
